FORECASTING AND MODELING AS METHODS OF ORGANIZING AND PLANNING THE INVESTIGATION OF CRIMINAL OFFENSES

Abstract

Forensic knowledge through methods, means and techniques acquires the status of the most important knowledge, and its application will help to qualitatively and effectively influence practical activities for the detection, investigation and prevention of criminal offenses. The article examines the issues of interpreting modeling and forecasting methods as those that must be used during the organization and planning of criminal offense investigations. The use of these methods in the context of activities for the organization and planning of criminal offense investigations is proposed. It is established that modeling is one of the main methods used when planning criminal offense investigations. This is due to the very nature of investigation planning, because its result is an imaginary investigation model. The main stages of modeling in the investigation of criminal offenses are named. The features that should be inherent in models during the organization and planning of criminal offense investigations are formed. It is proved that the modeling method is effective when used, but not in all cases without exception. Therefore, the application of the modeling method must be conditioned and rational, it is then that it will be possible to solve a large number of tasks listed in the article. It is argued that forecasting as a method of investigating criminal offenses consists in thinking through the operations of thinking about possible options for the behavior of both the criminal and the person conducting the pre-trial investigation, and the results of their influence on the solution of the outlined tactical and strategic tasks of the investigation. It is established that forecasting and modeling are interdependent methods of organizing and planning an investigation, which indicates that they are usually used simultaneously. This means that it is impossible to form forecasts without building models of the development of an event or the behavior of individual individuals, and, conversely, creating a model allows you to give a retrospective analysis or predict a certain phenomenon, event, process, etc.